Election Prediciton

Well, it's fun to be wrong, so let's see how wrong I can be.

I predict this is a landslide election. A complete and total rejection of the republican governing philosophy. People have been bamboozled for a decade now (three decades if you include Regan/Bush I/Bush II) that the government is bad, gays and Mexicans are invading and ruining America, and that liberals will tax you to death. The republican brand is in tatters not because Bush is a terrible president (though he is) but because conservatism is a terrible governing philosophy. You simply can't hate government and think it's terrible and then try and run government. You will create a self-fulfilling prophecy.

So, I predict Obama wins all Kerry states plus NH, CO, NM, NV, IA, FL, OH, VA, MO, MT, and NC. The republicans will be reduced to a quasi-regional government that's only popular in deep Southern states, insanely libertarian states, and Utah. The Senate will be dominated by Democrats with a 58 true Democratic majority. Lieberman will continue to be king of the Senate douche-bags, but will work with the Dems. The House will be overwhelmingly Dem, though not quite a supermajority. The blue dogs will be in the wilderness and rejected by the mainline and progressive Dem caucuses and thus forced to actually be Democrats. If you want to look at the data and make your own projection, the best site is 538.com

I can't wait.

Barakorado

Went to the Obama speech today in Denver. Crazy crowds. It's quite amazing to think about what's going on here. In the past several days, over 1,000,000 have traveled to see Barack speak live. St. Louis: 100,00+; New Mexico 65,000+; Denver 100,000+; Ft. Collins 30,000+; 10,000+ in Indiana; 50,000+ in Orlando; etc. When was the last time a politician got that many people that excited before they were even elected? Heck, when was the last time anyone got that many people that excited? U2 didn't draw crowds this large this consistently during the ZOOTV tour. Maybe the Beatles did. The obvious comparison is JFK, but I don't know if JFK generated this kind of enthusiasm across such a broad spectrum of the population. Anyway, here are some pics from the rally today. You can't see Barack, but you can see the massive crowd. We sat on capitol hill looking toward the main crowd. From the capitol to the building in the background (the one with the columns) is about 4 city blocks. The park is 2 city blocks wide. It was jammed full with people. To get an idea of the view Obama had, check this diary at Kos.

McCain: Aiding and Abetting Bin Laden and an Asshole Too

John Sidney McCain III last night told us he "knows how to get Bin Laden." Well, that's comforting. How long has he known this? He's been running for President for 2 years, has he known the whole time? If he has, why the fuck hasn't he gotten him yet? What the fuck is he waiting for? A fucking invitation from Pakistan? A blessing from Cheney and W.? If he's so goddamn sure how to get Bin Laden and he hasn't he is doing nothing short of aiding and abetting Bin Laden and Al Qaeda in all terrorist attacks and plots between the day Sydney knew how to get him and today. What a 'douche.

We all know Sidney is a hot-tempered grumpy old man. Add to it, "asshole." Look at this video from TPM. Obama clearly puts his hand out to shake Sidney's, but Sidney refuses and instead gestures to his vacant wife, who shakes Obama's hand.

I've covered this before, Sidney is also a coward. Last night made it glaringly obvious. For days Sidney and his sock puppet Palin have been calling Obama a terrorist, bringing up bogus claims about Ayers, and refusing to reprimand their lynch-mob audience when they scream to kill Obama or shout that he's a terrorist. But when Sidney had to look Obama in the eye and call him a terrorist, he couldn't. That's because Sidney is a coward. A pussy. He's like the kid in high school who talks shit but when confronted claims he didn't say anything or that he was misinterpreted. That guy was a pussy too, and he rightfully got his ass kicked. Sidney will get his ass kicked, too, in the election. He will go down as the GOP's biggest loser since Goldwater.

Update 10/9/08: TPM and Kos agree. Sidney = COWARD

My favorite VP debate comment

Palin said, at least once, "John McCain knows how to win a war." My eyes rolled when she said this. What war has John McCain ever won? Let's see, his rich daddy got him into the Naval Academy where he finished almost dead last in his class. So, he lost the war of getting good grades. Then he flew planes in Vietnam. We lost in Vietnam. But even more to the point, John McCain got lost in his plane and got shot down (I guess we know why he graduated almost last in his class). So, he, personally lost in Vietnam. I'll give him credit for winning the war of wills with his captors. Now, McCain supported the Iraq debacle from the outset. We're losing that war (can anyone define what winning that war would be anyway?). McCain has been on the sidelines with Afghanistan, failing to support policies that would help us win that war, which we're now losing again.

So, what war did Johnny win? Looks to me like he's been a big loser his whole life.

Is America Finally Losing Its Stupid?

For years I've been pulling my hair out in frustration as 'Mericuns base their political decisions on who is most like them and who they want to have a beer with. This is insane on many levels: 1) Bush can't drink beer, he's an alcoholic; 2) I don't want someone like me in charge b/c I'm not that smart (and neither is the average 'Mericun); 3) you and your buddies couldn't keep a house clean, what makes you think someone like you could keep a country from sinking? With Bush, perhaps, finally, Americans have realized that deciding who they should vote for based on who they'd like to get hammered with is not a good idea.

By all accounts, it seems people should like Palin more - she's sorta hot (a MILF at least), she's got this folksy personality (I personally find it a ridiculous caricature, but I don't live in Ohio and spend my life rooting for the Buckeyes, so I'm probably not the best judge of genuine folsky-ness), she talks like a moron which connects with people for some reason, and she's a complete vacuum. Biden, on the other hand, is very smart, knows tons about every issue, has facts and history at the tip of his tongue, and is mature. If this was 2000, Palin would wipe the floor with Biden. But it's not. This is a serious time and only serious people need apply for the job of President and Vice President. What we've learned these past several weeks (and saw in full color last night at the VP debate) is that McCain and Palin are deeply unserious.

I'm proud that America is waking up from its apathy about politics and beginning to realize that you need serious, smart, and intellectually curious people leading this country. I doubt this "great awakening" will last, but hopefully it lasts long enough to keep Obama/Biden in office for 8 years so we can get the country back on track and wrest it from the hands of the liars, bamboozelers, and thugs that have been in charge for the past 8.

Part IV: Pain and Suffering

Cay Caulker proved to be a great, relaxing place. Like Jamaica without being offered drugs every 5 seconds. We found a good place for dinner, I ordered a bacon cheeseburger. It was delightful. Lacking cash once again, we asked if the restaurant took credit. They did! So, I went to whip out my ATM card. D'oh! I realized what had happened the moment I saw the empty slot in my wallet.


All of a sudden I was in a MasterCard commercial. Desperately worried because Belize City is not a place you want to lose your ATM card, I called the bank. The card was cancelled, everything was fine. Priceless. I sat back, finished my burger, drank a couple of beers and watched the waves massage the beach. Exhausted, full, and a bit delirious, we headed back to the hotel room and passed out.


The next day we decided to do some snorkeling. After all, we had dragged our snorkeling gear across Latin America. The boat left at 10 and we were going to be out there until 1. Being quite pasty, we bought some sunscreen. All lubed up and ready to go, we headed out to the reef with our guide and a family of Spanish (as in the country) tourists. They were unremarkable except for the fat-ass guy with the long red hair down to the middle of his back and the matching nasty beard. He was quite pushy and ate a lot more than his fair share of the provided lunch, which was mostly fruit.

Overall, the trip was just o.k. I saw a puffer fish, that was the highlight, but I couldn't get it to puff up. No sharks. We did go to an area where stingrays fly (swim) about, that was cool. When we got back to shore around 1 p.m., we were tired and salty and headed to the room to rest. That's when we realized the extent of our sunburn. Red doesn't begin to describe the color my back had turned. Fuscia, maybe. Devil is more appropriate. But the pain was only beginning.

After a nap and some serious application of aloe we took a walk and grabbed some dinner. Too tired and sunburned to participate in the techno club scene, we headed to bed early. Besides, we had a plane to catch early the next morning to get to Puerto Barrios. Changing our plans from taking an 8 hour bus ride through Belize to a 40 min. prop plane ride was genius. I was just glad we weren't on a college budget and could afford the extra $100 per person.

The flight was very cool - my first time in such a small plane (turbo prop that seats 12). Belize is pretty from 10,000 feet. We landed, called a cab, and headed for the port. I use the word port quite generously, though. It was basically a wood shack with a concrete walkway that also served as a pier. Prior to arrival, our cabbie informed us that there were just two ferries between Belize and Puerto Barrios, Guatemala. The first left at 9:30 and the second left at 2:30. It was 9:25. Our cabbie also informed us of a new rule that required everyone be on board 15 mins. ahead of departure. It was 9:25.

Fortunately, the port was about a 2 min. cab ride from the airport (again, using the term loosely - it was a 400 yard asphalt strip with a gas station and a tin shelter). We sprinted into the port and asked for two tickets to Puerto Barrios. Of course, they only accepted cash and we had none. So, I asked where the nearest ATM was. "Oh, its very far. You'll never make it." "Just tell me where." "Go up to that street, take a left and go until you see the bank." I thanked her and sprinted. The term very far in Belize is much different from what Americans think of as very far. The bank was about a 30 second sprint away, and I'm no Michael Johnson. Since it was early on Saturday morning, I figured there'd be no one at the bank, I was just praying it was open.

The ATM was available, but, of course, there was a line three people deep - and there are maybe 5 people in the whole town. Time is a funny thing. When you don't need it, you have it. When you need it, you don't. When you want time to fly, it doesn't. When you need it to, it don't. When you want time to creep, it doesn't. When don't want it to, it does.

I grabbed the money from the ATM and, this time, my card (not mine, my wife's), sprinted back to the port, paid, and got my ticket to another country. Fortunately, the boat company held the boat for us. I had imagined it would be a large ship like those used to ferry folks in New York, or between England and France. Nope, this was basically a large fiberglass canoe that sat four across. It had a canopy and an outboard motor. It was going to be an hour long ride.

About half way through the trip, the two deckhands seated on the bow began to signal thumbs down and pointing in front of the boat. Turns out there's basically a garbage dump in the middle of the Gulf of Honduras between Belize and Guatemala. Nice. Reason enough to recycle your plastic bottles, people.

After slaloming trash for 10 minutes, the boat gathered speed again and we were soon in Guatemala. But we needed money, again. We grabbed a cab and in broken Spanish I told the guy we needed money. He drove us to an ATM that worked and we got enough for the cab ride plus some extra.

A short drive later, we arrived at our hotel/resort, checked in and sat in the lobby for 2 hours while we waited for our room to be prepared. Awesome. What you want to do after literally being on a boat, a plane, and in a car for the past 6 hours is sit in a hotel lobby. At least it had a/c, but that benefit was offset equally by the bevy of mosquitoes that loved every inch of my pasty white legs.